May
23
Encouraging impunity
Filed Under siasa by Mucheru | Leave a Comment
Kenya is slowly recovering from the effects of the post-election violence that rocked the country for the first two months of the year. One of the parties in the conflict, ODM, is calling for amnesty for those arrested for participating in the violence and various crimes around it. This, they say, is necessary for national healing. A blanket amnesty, in my opinion, is neither necessary nor conducive for the goal of national healing. Read more
May
17
Swali la Monty Hall
Filed Under Uncategorized by Mucheru | Leave a Comment
Katika miaka ya sitini na sabini, kulikuwa na kipindi cha televisheni kilichoitwa “Let’s Make a Deal” kilichofana nchini Marekani. Katika kila kipindi hiki, kulikuwa na washiriki tofauti ambao Monty Hall, mtangazaji wa kipindi, aliongoza kwa michezo fulani. Mojawapo ya michezo hii ilihusisha kuchagua kati ya vyumba vitatu ambapo chumba kimoja kilikuwa na zawadi (kawaida gari) ilhali vyumba vingine mlikuwa na kitu kisicho dhamana (kawaida mbuzi). Ili kukanganya wachezaji Monty Hall aliwapa fursa ya kuchagua chumba kwanza (kwa kuashiria mlango wa chumba) kisha naye Monty Hall aliashiria moja kati ya vyumba viwili vilivyosalia. Monty Hall aliagiza wasaidizi wake kufungua chumba alichochagua yeye. Kwa kuwa Monty alijua awali chumba chenye zawadi, alipanga kwamba kila wakati mlango wake alionyesha chumba kisicho na zawadi. Hapo mchezaji aliulizwa ikiwa alitaka kubadili chaguo lake kufuatia ujuzi huu mpya.
Kwa watazamaji nyumbani, ambao hujiona kama ndio wachezaji, swali lilikuwa Je mpangilio upi ungezidisha uwezekano wa kushinda? Mwanahesabu mmoja aliamua kutumia mbinu zake kupendekeza mfumo uliofaa – alisema kuwa kubadili chaguo lako kunazidisha uwezekano wako kushinda. Read more